What is a “prediction”?

A graphic illustrating the distribution of wins given a 50% win rate (in orange) vs the distribution of win predictions from the model (blue). That process gave us the baseline we needed to say that the “prediction” is essentially the average number of wins that a deck like yours would get.

What makes the 2022 Senate battleground so unpredictable?

What makes the 2022 Senate battleground so unpredictable at this point is that seven of the nine most competitive seats feature hard-to-predict Republican primaries – specifically, primaries for seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

How credible are the predictions of Mark Battelle’s predictions?

His predictions are thoughtful, credible, and specific. It’s also worth noting that Battelle circles back and grades his predictions – a level of accountability that is to be praised. Like this feature? An expanded look at 2021’s predictions will be shared with our VC+ audience later this month.

What are bottom-up predictions?

Bottom-up predictions basically enrich and enhance actuals with additional information. In contrast to top-down predictions, you can drilldown on bottom-up predictions and slice and dice the predictive data in all dimensions. The bottom-up predictions are also known as predictive accounting.